What Actually Matters in a Winter Turnout Rug
Most rug decisions are made on fill weight alone. Fill weight is the specification least likely to be the reason a rug fails.

Rugs are usually chosen by one number. The fill weight goes up as the temperature goes down, and that is the entire decision process for a great many people.
It is the wrong place to start, because the common ways a winter rug fails have very little to do with how much filling is inside it.
Horses handle cold better than they handle wet and wind
The first thing worth correcting is the mental model. A healthy horse in good condition with a winter coat tolerates cold considerably better than most owners assume. What defeats that coat is not temperature. It is water and wind.
A dry coat traps a layer of air and works. A coat that is soaked flat loses that air layer, and the horse starts losing heat quickly. Wind does the same thing by stripping the trapped air away.
Which reorders the priorities immediately. The job of a winter turnout rug is primarily to keep the horse dry and to break the wind. Insulation is the secondary function, not the primary one.
A waterproof rug with no fill will do more for a horse in a wet gale than a heavy rug that leaks.
The outer fabric is doing the real work
Two specifications describe the outer shell, and both matter more than fill.
Denier is a measure of the fabric's thread, and in practice it tells you about toughness. Rugs commonly run from around 600D up through 1200D and beyond. A higher figure is a heavier, more abrasion resistant fabric. If a horse lives out, plays hard, wears a rug through hedges, or shares a field with anything that bites, this number is the difference between a rug lasting one winter and lasting several.
Waterproofing is separate from that, and it is a coating or membrane rather than a property of the weave. It also degrades. A rug that kept water out two winters ago may not now, and a horse standing in the rain under a rug that has stopped working is worse off than a horse with no rug at all, because a wet rug holds the water against it.
Breathability is the specification people skip
This is the one that causes the most avoidable trouble.
A horse under a rug generates heat and moisture. If that moisture cannot escape through the fabric, it condenses inside, and the horse ends up damp underneath a rug that is keeping rain out perfectly well.
A horse that sweats under too much rug and then stands in it is in the same position as a horse that got rained on. Which is why over rugging is a genuine problem rather than a cautious mistake, and why a rug that manages moisture outward is worth more than an extra layer of filling.
Fit is where rugs actually fail
Most rug problems that owners actually experience are fit problems.
Rubs at the shoulder and wither are the common ones, and they come from a rug that is too tight across the chest or cut without enough room for the shoulder to move. A horse walks and grazes for hours, and a rug that catches the shoulder on every stride will take hair off.
A rug that is too large slips sideways, ends up under the belly, and becomes a hazard rather than a garment.
The things to look at are the shoulder gussets, the depth of the drop down the side, whether the neck sits clear of the wither, and whether the leg straps and surcingles are adjustable enough to hold it in place without pulling it tight.
Fill weight, finally
Fill is quoted in grams, and the conventional steps run from no fill at all, through lightweight, medium and heavy.
The useful approach is to own a small number of options rather than one compromise, and to change according to the weather and the horse rather than the month. A clipped horse in work needs a different answer from an unclipped native living out, and both need a different answer in a wet week from a dry cold one.
Which is the honest summary. Buy for the shell, the breathability and the fit. Then choose the fill for the day.